29 Jun · 01:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GS
🇵🇱Grzegorz Sawicki
ELO 1300
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Nowak
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1367
FormLLLLW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Nowak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+67
H2H16-10
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (16-10)