29 Jun · 02:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1455
FormLLLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Schaniel
KS
🇵🇱Krzysztof Schaniel
ELO 1489
FormWWWWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Schaniel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 41% · 2.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+34
H2H62-80
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.