29 Jun · 01:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1486
FormLWWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Baron
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1446
FormLLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Baron
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+40
H2H44-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.