29 Jun · 07:10 MESZHigh · Clear Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1386
FormWLLWW
60%Win chancemodel fair 1.67Michalik
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1473
FormWLLWL
40%
60%
Fair odds · Michalik
Model 60% · 1.67vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
23%
2-3
20%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+87
H2H48-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (48-18)