29 Jun · 09:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1464
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1481
FormLWWLL
48%
52%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+17
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.