29 Jun · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1647
FormLWWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Balcerzak
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1630
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+17
H2H67-66
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.