29 Jun · 14:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1418
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Minda
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1481
FormLLWWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+63
H2H20-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+63)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (20-17)