29 Jun · 13:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1474
FormWLWWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Czerwinski
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1504
FormWWLLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Czerwinski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 54% · 1.85· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+30
H2H2-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.