29 Jun · 15:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AS
🇵🇱Artur Sobel
ELO 1469
FormLWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Sobel
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1411
FormLWLLL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Sobel
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 69% · 1.45· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+58
H2H9-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-5)