29 Jun · 20:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1644
FormWWLWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Fomin
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1678
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 25% · 3.93· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+34
H2H6-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.