29 Jun · 18:35 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AF
🇵🇱Andriej Fomin
ELO 1678
FormLWWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Fomin
MK
🇵🇱Michal Krutak
ELO 1610
FormWLLWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Fomin
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H8-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-4)