29 Jun · 18:25 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1556
FormLLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Zelezik
JZ
🇵🇱Jacek Zelezik
ELO 1563
FormWLWWL
49%
51%
Fair odds · Zelezik
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 48% · 2.10· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H4-14
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.