29 Jun · 21:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1458
FormLLWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1503
FormWLWWW
45%
55%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H31-17
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-17)