29 Jun · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KG
🇵🇱Kuba Golaszewski
ELO 1349
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Golaszewski
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1323
FormLWLLL
53%
47%
Fair odds · Golaszewski
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 39% · 2.55· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+26
H2H5-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.