29 Jun · 22:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
DM
🇵🇱Dariusz Maszczynski
ELO 1278
FormLLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Staniczek
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1336
FormLLWLL
44%
56%
Fair odds · Staniczek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+58
H2H18-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+58)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-3)