30 Jun · 01:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1366
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Kotyl
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1362
FormLWWLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Kotyl
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 52% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+4
H2H94-72
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.