30 Jun · 02:35 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇵🇱Mikolaj Lukaszewski
ELO 1373
FormLLWWL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Lukaszewski
JP
🇵🇱Jacek Przewlocki
ELO 1371
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Lukaszewski
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~78 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
19%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+2
H2H19-23
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.