30 Jun · 03:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1450
FormLLLWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Kostepski
RK
🇵🇱Robert Kostepski
ELO 1519
FormWLWWL
42%
58%
Fair odds · Kostepski
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 60% · 1.66· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+69
H2H31-18
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+69)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (31-18)