30 Jun · 04:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MB
🇵🇱Mariusz Baron
ELO 1502
FormWLWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Baron
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1461
FormWLLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Baron
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 44% · 2.29· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+41
H2H80-76
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+41)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (80-76)