30 Jun · 23:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
PK
🇵🇱Pawel Kurek
ELO 1540
FormLLWLL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Szostok
SS
🇵🇱Sebastian Szostok
ELO 1591
FormLWLLW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Szostok
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 71% · 1.41· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H9-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (9-4)