30 Jun · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇵🇱Mateusz Sikon
ELO 1363
FormLLWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Sikon
JN
🇵🇱Jakub Nowak
ELO 1355
FormLWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Sikon
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~79 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.