1 Jul · 08:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JB
🇵🇱Josef Braun
ELO 1738
FormLWWWW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Wiecek
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1815
FormLLLWW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Wiecek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+77
H2H18-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (18-9)