1 Jul · 06:55 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MO
🇵🇱Martin Olejnik
ELO 1809
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wiecek
AW
🇵🇱Adrian Wiecek
ELO 1815
FormLLLWW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Wiecek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+6
H2H24-38
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.