30 Jun · 20:10 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BW
🇵🇱Bartlomiej Wisniewski
ELO 1323
FormWLWLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Wisniewski
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1316
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~76 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+7
H2H63-51
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.