30 Jun · 19:45 MESZLow · Coin Flip
BC
🇵🇱Blazej Cioch
ELO 1385
FormLWLLL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1398
FormLWWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+13
H2H1-4
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.