30 Jun · 20:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1627
FormWLWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Koczyba
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1582
FormWWLLW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 63% · 1.58· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+45
H2H6-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-4)