30 Jun · 21:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1323
FormWWLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Rolak
AE
🇵🇱Adrian Eliasz
ELO 1306
FormLLLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Rolak
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 39% · 2.57· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-6
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.