30 Jun · 21:10 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
GM
🇵🇱Grzegorz Marud
ELO 1449
FormLLLWW
69%Win chancemodel fair 1.45Koczyba
MK
🇵🇱Mariusz Koczyba
ELO 1632
FormWWLWW
31%
69%
Fair odds · Koczyba
Model 69% · 1.45vsMarket 70% · 1.43· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 48%Total ~75 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
22%
2-3
21%
3-2
14%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+183
H2H41-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+183)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (41-13)