30 Jun · 21:35 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LO
🇵🇱Lukasz Oracz
ELO 1577
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Oracz
RS
🇵🇱Robert Szymik
ELO 1539
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Oracz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+38
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.