30 Jun · 23:00 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JR
🇵🇱Jaroslaw Rolak
ELO 1321
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Mugowski
AM
🇵🇱Arkadiusz Mugowski
ELO 1381
FormLLLWW
43%
57%
Fair odds · Mugowski
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 68% · 1.46· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+60
H2H3-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 1 reason
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+60)