30 Jun · 23:30 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MB
🇵🇱Marian Brunner
ELO 1557
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Brunner
JS
🇵🇱Jakub Skorupa
ELO 1539
FormWWWWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Brunner
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 37% · 2.71· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H4-10
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.