1 Jul · 07:40 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1449
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Stapor
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Stapor
ELO 1455
FormLLWLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Stapor
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 47% · 2.12· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
3-2
16%
0-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+6
H2H12-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.