1 Jul · 11:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1529
FormLWWWL
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Skotniczny
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1576
FormLWLWL
45%
55%
Fair odds · Skotniczny
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~79 pts
1-3
22%
3-1
18%
0-3
18%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H22-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-16)