1 Jul · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1608
FormLLLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Poliniewicz
PC
🇵🇱Piotr Chlodnicki
ELO 1526
FormWWLWL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~76 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H6-5
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-5)