1 Jul · 15:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1456
FormLWLWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Misiak
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1444
FormWLLWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.46· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
19%
3-0
16%
2-3
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+12
H2H68-47
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.