1 Jul · 15:00 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1610
FormLWWLL
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Poliniewicz
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1609
FormWLLLW
50%
50%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 52% · 1.93· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
20%
2-3
16%
3-0
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+1
H2H74-96
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.