1 Jul · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PC
🇵🇱Pawel Chojnacki
ELO 1401
FormWLLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Chojnacki
AS
🇵🇱Adam Staniczek
ELO 1365
FormWWLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Chojnacki
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 49% · 2.06· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H11-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.