1 Jul · 22:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AD
🇵🇱Artur Daniel
ELO 1718
FormWLWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Daniel
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1682
FormLWWLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Daniel
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+36
H2H35-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.