1 Jul · 19:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1664
FormLLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Nowalinski
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1682
FormLWWLW
48%
52%
Fair odds · Nowalinski
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+18
H2H14-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.