1 Jul · 16:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Mateusz Misiak
ELO 1445
FormLLWLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Misiak
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1412
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Misiak
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 47% · 2.13· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
18%
3-0
17%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+33
H2H10-16
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.