2 Jul · 01:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AF
🇵🇱Adrian Fabis
ELO 1450
FormWLLLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Fabis
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1421
FormWLWLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Fabis
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 67% · 1.50· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~78 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
19%
3-0
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+29
H2H61-65
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.