2 Jul · 02:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1596
FormWLWWL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Nocun
MW
🇵🇱Miroslaw Warzecha
ELO 1519
FormLLLLL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 46% · 2.17· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~74 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
19%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+77
H2H24-20
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+77)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-20)