2 Jul · 03:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
BW
🇵🇱Blazej Warpas
ELO 1473
FormWLLWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Warpas
SW
🇵🇱Stanislaw Wnek
ELO 1407
FormLLWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Warpas
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 58% · 1.71· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~78 pts
3-1
23%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+66
H2H8-3
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (8-3)