2 Jul · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GA
🇵🇱Grzegorz Adamiak
ELO 1639
FormWWWWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Adamiak
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1589
FormWLLWL
55%
45%
Fair odds · Adamiak
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 62% · 1.61· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
1-3
18%
3-0
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+50
H2H10-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+50)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (10-1)