2 Jul · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1589
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Balcerzak
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1614
FormLWWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 48% · 2.07· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~74 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
19%
0-3
17%
3-2
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+25
H2H48-79
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.