2 Jul · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1606
FormLWWWL
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Balcerzak
MB
🇵🇱Marcin Balcerzak
ELO 1617
FormWWLLW
49%
51%
Fair odds · Balcerzak
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.01· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
19%
0-3
16%
3-2
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+11
H2H48-80
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.