2 Jul · 18:55 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1588
FormLWWLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Tkaczyk
HT
🇵🇱Henryk Tkaczyk
ELO 1620
FormLLLWL
46%
54%
Fair odds · Tkaczyk
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
21%
3-1
18%
0-3
17%
2-3
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+32
H2H40-34
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.