3 Jul · 06:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
KS
🇵🇱Karol Sulkowski
ELO 1403
FormLLLWW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Linek
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1485
FormWWWWW
41%
59%
Fair odds · Linek
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 42%Total ~77 pts
1-3
23%
0-3
19%
2-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
13%
Elo Gap+82
H2H14-12
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+82)
- ✓Better recent form (5-0)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (14-12)