3 Jul · 05:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GK
🇵🇱Gracjan Kesik
ELO 1415
FormWLLWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kesik
KK
🇵🇱Krzysztof Kotyl
ELO 1362
FormLLLWL
56%
44%
Fair odds · Kesik
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 60% · 1.68· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
18%
3-2
16%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+53
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)