3 Jul · 07:15 MESZMedium · Model Lean
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1616
FormWWLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Poliniewicz
JG
🇵🇱Jakub Glanowski
ELO 1552
FormWLWWW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.69· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-0
18%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
2-3
14%
Elo Gap+64
H2H36-24
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+64)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (36-24)